Coronavirus death toll estimate DROPS again: Top COVID-19 model shows predicted US fatalities have fallen by 12% from 68,841 to 60,308 – just three weeks after it projected that 84,000 would die
The University of Washington’s model projected on Friday that the US death toll will reach 60,308 by August 4
This marks a 12 percent decline from 68,841 deaths forecast earlier in the week
Better-than-expected social distancing practices and strict state shutdowns have helped slow the outbreak and improve the outlook for Americans
States with low death rates could relax some restrictions on May 4, experts said
Rural or sparsely populated states may need to wait until late June or early July to reopen, the institute said
Signs that state lockdowns are working come as protesters marched on official residences this week demanding an end to stay at home orders
By RACHEL SHARP
DAILYMAIL.COM
18 April 2020
The US death toll will be 12 percent lower than expected as social distancing guidelines and state lockdowns have helped to slow the spread of coronavirus, experts predict.
The University of Washington’s predictive model, which is regularly cited by state public health authorities and White House officials, projected on Friday that the US death toll will reach 60,308 by August 4.
This marks a 12 percent decline from 68,841 deaths forecast earlier in the week.
Researchers said better-than-expected social distancing practices and strict state shutdowns across the US over the past four weeks have helped to slow the pandemic in its tracks and improved the outlook for Americans.
The University of Washington’s predictive model projected on Friday that the US death toll will reach 60,308 by August 4
‘We are seeing the numbers decline because some state and local governments, and, equally important, individuals around the country, have stepped up to protect their families, their neighbors, and friends and co-workers by reducing physical contact,’ said Christopher Murray, director of the university’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME).
The model also projected that the US reached its peak death rate of 2,481 on April 15, and peak hospitalizations on April 14.
This is the second time the institute has revised down its figures, after it predicted just three weeks ago 84,000 Americans would be killed in the pandemic.
Based on the new estimates, the institute said states with low death rates, including Vermont, West Virginia, Montana and Hawaii, could safely relax some restrictions on May 4, so long as they continued to limit social gatherings.
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