A second Coronavirus wave will crash over the US this winter and will last until March next year with 1.4million infected, Morgan Stanley predicts

Tuesday, April 14, 2020
By Paul Martin

The coronavirus outbreak will end in coming days, only to return in a second wave that reaches its apex this winter, according to a Morgan Stanley timeline
The timeline, which combines state models, has the pandemic fading away in 2021 as a vaccine becomes available
The bank has several times increased its forecasts for the total number of cases in the US, due to lackluster quarantine measures
Morgan’s researchers are now expecting there will be a total of 1.4 million cases of the coronavirus in the US, up from 200,000 about a month ago

By RALPH R. ORTEGA
DAILYMAIL.COM
14 April 2020

The coronavirus outbreak will end in the next few days, but will return in a second wave that reaches its apex this winter, according to a new timeline from Morgan Stanley.

The same timeline, which combines state models, has the pandemic fading away in 2021 as a vaccine becomes available.

Morgan has several times increased its forecasts for the total number of coronavirus cases in the US, due to lackluster quarantine measures.

The bank’s researchers now expect there will be 1.4 million cases, up from 200,000 about a month ago, Business Insider reports.

There have been more than 573,200 confirmed cases in the US of the coronavirus, which has been blamed for close to 23,000 deaths.

As the deadly flu-like virus, also known as COVID-19, continues to spread across the country, a return to normalcy will mean the creation of vaccines, immunity tests and stabilizing the nation’s healthcare system, say the researchers at Morgan.

But before life returns to normal in the US, a second outbreak is likely, according to the timeline.

People who’ve recovered from COVID-19 will be going back to work in June.

Another group will follow by mid-summer, says Morgan.

By contrast, Dr. Anthony Fauci, who serves on President Donald Trump’s coronavirus task force, says the workforce could begin a gradual or ‘rolling reentry’ by the start of next month.

The timeline also shows that in the spring there will be a dramatic reduction in cases of the virus, as treatments do their work and increased testing is rolled out. As the US tests 1 million people per day, the new number of cases is expected to drop by 70 per cent.

The country is currently running about 140,000 daily tests, totaling 2.8 million as of this past Sunday, reports the COVID-19 Tracking Project, an effort overseen by journalists and researchers.

Serology tests are also expected to start, testing for prior exposure to the virus, and providing data that may help determine those who may be immune. Those tests should be come this summer, says Morgan, aligning its timeline with pharmaceutical industry forecasts.

New cases will decline sharply in August and schools should be able to reopen by September, the timeline shows.

Should a second outbreak come, Morgan says, it will pick up as the end of the year approaches and cold weather sets in creating a slingshot effect between both coasts and middle states, and after the latter has experienced the virus.

But a second outbreak of infections picks up in November, aided by cold weather and a slingshot effect between the coasts and the middle of the country after the latter’s delayed encounter with the pandemic.

The Morgan timeline shows more than 15,000 new cases will come each day and then start to decline over a four-month period until a vaccine is made available by March.

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