Updated coronavirus projections for April, May, June and July in the USA: Prepare for over 90,000 deaths in the FIRST wave

Sunday, March 29, 2020
By Paul Martin

by: Mike Adams
Sunday, March 29, 2020

The number of aggregate fatalities from Wuhan coronavirus infections in the United States stands at 2,363, with an increase of 510 deaths from yesterday. It’s worth noting that our original pandemic projection model did not see this number of deaths taking place until April 19th. In this article, we attempt to lay out new, revised projection numbers for April through July of this year.

Our original projection put America on track to see over 100,000 fatalities by early June. However, strong social distancing measures were put in place over the last three weeks, altering that trajectory to a lower figure by early June. Now, we face the daunting task of attempting to project where things are headed over the next four months. In attempting to arrive at good answers, there are several important things we must now consider:

1) The model was far too conservative and vastly underestimated the R0 value and the infection velocity of the virus.

2) Very strong social distancing factors (i.e. “lockdowns”) have been put in place in many cities, causing a lagging mitigation effect that will aggressively slow the number of new infections in those areas.

3) Each city is being handled differently now, which means we technically need a standalone model for each city that takes into account the start date of the lockdowns, the efficiency enforcement of the lockdowns, the mutation strain of the virus circulating in that city, the percentage of people in that city who use public transportation, etc. But that becomes very complex for all the obvious reasons.

4) Each city is on a different starting date timeline in terms of when the number of local infections crossed the 1,000 mark. This means, for example, that Atlanta might be 3-4 weeks behind NYC, even though it’s on a similar track in terms of its rate of spread (“velocity” of infections). In addition, each city has a different R0 value based on its own culture and transportation systems. Cities where people tend to own no private vehicles and rely on public transportation are clearly being hit harder than other cities, just as we warned would happen over a month ago.

Given those factors, here is where we see things headed for the next four months.

Programming note: We don’t trust “confirmed infections” to be accurate, so the real numbers to watch are hospitalizations and deaths

Before we get into the projections, here’s an important note. We are well aware that “confirmed infections” is nowhere near an accurate number representing how many people are currently infected. Basing projections on infections alone leaves a very wide window of variability.

Two far better numbers to watch are:

1) Number of hospitalizations.

2) Number of deaths.

Both of these numbers, we believe, are far more accurate and very difficult for officials to fake or fudge, either accidentally or on purpose. So we are shifting our projections to monitoring these numbers rather than infections.

In particular, the “new deaths today” number for each state is especially important when expressed as a ratio of deaths-to-population. This number is a trailing indicator of the number of real-world infections, given that people who die from the infection must first be infected.

By monitoring the number of “deaths per million” in each state, we can assess how deeply the epidemic has penetrated the population and therefore how far long the infection has progressed in that area.

New York, for example, with 883 deaths and a population of 19.44 million people, is currently at around 45.4 deaths per million people.

This ratio is the highest in the nation, which tells us that New York is ahead of all other states in terms of progressing along the timeline of infections, hospitalizations and deaths. The next closest state, by the way, isn’t New Jersey or even California. It’s Louisiana, which has 137 deaths out of a population of 4.67 million, giving us 29.3 deaths per million people.

California is only at 3 deaths per million people, which likely means this pandemic is still in the very early stages in that state, and we should expect a lot more hospitalizations and deaths there in the next few months.

For every death from coronavirus, we might hundreds of infections, but we don’t know for sure since we don’t have reliable case fatality rates yet

The Rest…HERE

2 Responses to “Updated coronavirus projections for April, May, June and July in the USA: Prepare for over 90,000 deaths in the FIRST wave”

  1. Dave

    Corona virus appears on the label of Lysol as one of the pathogen Lysol eradicates. Been on there my entire 52 years. There are 1000’s of Corona virus/variants world wide – it’s safe to say 99% of the world population have been exposed, to multiple strains of it. That DNA is a strange thing you know? Do you know that, every man a woman has ever had sexual intercourse with left his DNA in her permanently? Same applies for men. Every woman you have ever slept with left her DNA permanently incorporated into you. So, are the medics and labs testing for Covid 19? NO. They’re checking for ‘Corona’ virus, the DNA of which is present in almost all of humanity. Do you know, nearly 100,000 residents of the Lombardi region of Italy died last year? It is heavily populated with elderly, infirm people. Everyone of them have Corona virus DNA present in their bodies. When they pass from their age related infirmities now, a simple test confirms “Corona virus present”. Slick eh? One day no one ever heard of an ISIS, and the next day, there was an ISIS lurking under every fucking stone on the planet just waiting to jump up and cut your head off. Funny – I’ve never seen an ISIS… I’ve asked 500 people all across the US in the last 3 weeks how many sick/dead victims of Covid19 they know? It’s weird. Not a single person have told me of a acquaintance, relative, friend et al they are aware of that have been sick/succumbed to the terrible affliction. Strange. Maybe, just maybe, it’s all make believe boys and girls….

  2. Robert Edward Lee

    @Dave – Right on sir. Well researched and spoken. You know (((they))) knew this too … and still went with the fear mongering. I’ve done the same – asked MANY people if know ANYONE infected or dead – answer = NO ! Hospitals ? Empty 🙂

    Those 2 ships are Gitmo bound. Cargo = near future residents of Hell.

    Get out the ( non gmo ) popcorn and enjoy the show AND this mini vacation.

    Buy gold / silver / cryptos. Sell gold / silver in mid May. Buy more cryptos.

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