California braces for possible third big earthquake as experts say there is a 10 PERCENT chance of one reaching 7.0 or higher in the next week – but there have already been more than 600 smaller quakes recorded in the area in 24 hours

Sunday, July 7, 2019
By Paul Martin

Ridgecrest sits about 10 miles from the epicenters of both tremors that hit 32 hours apart Thursday and Friday
Following Friday’s event, Caltech seismologist Lucy Jones warned there is a 10 percent chance of another magnitude 7.0 or higher quake in the next week
‘The fault is growing,’ Jones explained, adding that it is now 25 to 30 miles long
Over the next week, Southern California has only a 27 percent chance of experiencing a third earthquake greater than magnitude 6, but a 96 percent chance of going through a tremor of magnitude 5 or higher
USGS mapped out approximately 600 quakes that hit the area just hours north of Los Angeles on Saturday
Most registered between the 2 and 3.5 magnitude range, but there were plenty that got as high as 4.5.
The first earthquake measuring at magnitude 6.4 shook the city on Thursday morning
It was determined to be a foreshock to an even larger 7.1 temblor, Southern California’s largest in 20 years
Compared to the first shock, the second was 11 times stronger, five times bigger and lasted longer
There have been more than 1,700 aftershocks recorded in the area since the first quake on Thursday morning
There has been an average of one aftershock every minute since Friday’s quake in the southern part of the state, according to the United States Geological Survey website

By MATTHEW WRIGHT
DAILYMAIL.COM
7 July 2019

California earthquake experts have indicated that there is a 10 percent chance of another magnitude 7.0 or higher quake hitting the same area in the southern part of the state that was already hit with two intense quakes.

Following Friday’s event, Caltech seismologist Lucy Jones warned there is a 10 percent chance of another magnitude 7.0 or higher quake in the next week.

‘The fault is growing,’ Jones explained to the Los Angeles Times, adding that it is now 25 to 30 miles long.

Over the next week, Southern California has only a 27 percent chance of experiencing a third earthquake greater than magnitude 6, but a 96 percent chance of going through a tremor of magnitude 5 or higher.

Those precise probabilities were generated by scientists at the United States Geological Survey (USGS), using models based on longstanding principles of seismic behavior and decades of data on aftershocks from earthquakes.

But the same predictive power does not extend to forecasting when and where earthquakes will strike in the first place, experts acknowledge.

‘Even if it’s a theoretical possibility, it may be a practical impossibility,’ said Andrew Michael, a California-based geophysicist at the USGS.

The USGS mapped out approximately 600 quakes that hit the area just hours north of Los Angeles on Saturday. Most registered between the 2 and 3.5 magnitude range, but there were plenty that got as high as 4.5.

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