Yield Curve Inverts For The First Time Since 2007: Recession Countdown Begins

Friday, March 22, 2019
By Paul Martin

by Tyler Durden
ZeroHedge.com
Fri, 03/22/2019

Update: The most prescient recession indicator the market just inverted for the first time since 2007.

Don’t believe us? Here is Larry Kudlow last summer explaining that everyone freaking out about the 2s10s spread is silly, they focus on the 3-month to 10-year spread that has preceded every recession in the last 50 years (with few if any false positives)… (fwd to 4:20)

As we noted below, on six occasions over the past 50 years when the three-month yield exceeded that of the 10-year, economic recession invariably followed, commencing an average of 311 days after the initial signal.

And here is Bloomberg showing how the yield curve inverted in 1989, in 2000 and in 2006, with recessions prompting starting in 1990, 2001 and 2008. This time won’t be different.

The Rest…HERE

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