Beat the Establishment: A Campaign to Relaunch this Site in Time for the Second Great Recession to Prevent Bankster Bailout 2.0

Saturday, December 15, 2018
By Paul Martin

By David Haggith
TheGreatRecession.info
December 13, 2018

If we don’t beat the establishment before the next downturn, we’re going to see the same bailouts and money printing we’ve seen before but on a deliriously insane level.

This is not me being a permabear. In fact, when the stock market didn’t plunge in the early summer as I predicted it would, I honored a bet I had been challenged to by a detractor who was understandably tired of permagloomers who are only right because they keep predicting a market crash until events finally turn their way.

Because I don’t do that sort of thing and because I believe strongly in the trends I lay out here, my promised I would apologize if I was wrong and put everything on the line by saying I might even stop writing this blog if I was wrong by much. Even though I still believed the market turn actually began on in the early summer with the breaking of the FAANG stocks (the market leaders) and even though I could have claimed “I only said ‘might,’” I gave the benefit of the doubt to the person I had bet against and stopped writing articles here or anywhere. The “might” was never intended as an escape clause, so I didn’t use it that way. It meant that it would depend on how far I was off. The last article here about how that turned out was titled “The End is Here. I Bet My Blog and Lost and Won.”

I noted that, while GDP rose (causing many to believe the economy was improving), I continued to believe the GDP bump and the market’s little rally were meaningless blips that would quickly give way. I also may have been the first anywhere to proclaim that the US housing market had peaked in May, as proof the economy was careening into a downturn. My one crow on a wire cawed at me for knowing nothing about real estate. (So, we’ll come back to that point in a moment.)

I noted also that automakers had all announced major terminations in their automobile lines, and that the retail apocalypse was continuing apace. All of these things were the exact industrial changes that I had been saying for well over a year would most likely be the first major cracks to show up in the economy. So, their appearance by midsummer satisfied the part of my bet that also said the economy would begin to break up seriously enough for everyone to start taking notice.

The largest point drop in the Dow’s history in January certainly satisfied another part of the predictions that had brought on my bet because I had said in that article back in the summer of seventeen that the stock market’s crash would likely take its first big leg down in January, 2018, followed by good sized bounce, followed by an even bigger and more definitive second leg down in “early summer.”

When the FAANG stocks (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix and Google), which had led the market up throughout the entire recovery period, did break, I stated resolutely that the FAANGs were about to take the market down. However, the FAANGs decided to make a second run at a summit, which set my sole detractor into crowing about how his stocks would continue to rise to the far horizon because of the Almighty Trump. That all looks distant and faint in the rear-view mirror now!

I scoffed at my scoffer for thinking that bump would turn into proof of his notion that the stock market would rise beyond all the sunsets in the foreseeable future, but conceded with the following statement:

That latter market victory makes me permanently wrong about July being the NASDAQ’S final high before it enters a bear market because of the break in the FAANG stocks. That may be just a technicality if the NASDAQ fails to hold that high and falls. As it stands right now, though, I lose my bet. I could state that no one ever had the courage to take up the bet against me [by putting something at stake against what I had laid on the table][, so the bet’s off, but I won’t dodge out on that technicality either.

The Rest…HERE

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