War Breaks Out Between Online Pollsters…(Gettin’ My Butt Kicked Today!)

Tuesday, November 6, 2018
By Paul Martin

by Tyler Durden
Tue, 11/06/2018

Voting has opened across the US in what will likely be remembered as the most contentious off-year election in recent history. Already, early voting has seen a massive increase compared with 2014, with the number of early voters climbing more than 50% to a staggering 36 million this cycle. As donors have poured a record $5 billion into the race, the market’s “base case” is that Democrats will wrest back control of the House, while the GOP will pick up a handful of Senate seats and expand its slim 51-49 majority by as many as four votes.

Despite the best efforts of grassroots progressives (who have been aided by a heavy turnout among ‘Democratic socialist’ organizers), the polls narrowed significantly in October as Republican candidates eroded the Democrats’ lead. In the latest round of polls, one mainstream pollster (Rasmussen, the same firm that predicted Trump’s victory), notably projected a win for the Republicans.

However, while pundits like 538’s Nate Silver have continued to place Democrats’ odds of winning the House at north of 85%, online betting markets are seeing the odds more heavily skewed in the GOP’s favor.

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