Hedge Fund CIO: “Some See Parallels Between Today And The Late-1930s, Which Led To World War II”

Monday, October 15, 2018
By Paul Martin

by Eric Peters of One River Asset Management
ZeroHedge.com
Sun, 10/14/2018

The future is unknowable. Yet never has capital been so concentrated in strategies that depend on the future closely resembling the past. The most dominant of these strategies requires bonds to rally when stocks fall. For decades, both rose inexorably. And a new array of increasingly complex and illiquid strategies depends on a jump in volatility to be followed by a rapid decline of equal magnitude. They appear uncorrelated until they are not.

Virtually every investment portfolio measures risk by utilizing some combination of volatility and correlation, both of which are backward-looking and low. But the present is knowable. The past too. And the multi-decade trends that carried us to today produced levels of inequality rarely seen.

Low levels of inflation, growth, productivity, and volatility are features of this cycle’s increasingly unequal distribution. But cycle extremes produce pressures that reverse their direction.

On cue, an anti-establishment political wave washed away the globalists, with promises to turn the tide. Such change is nothing new, just another loop around the sun.

Now signs of a cycle swing abound; shifting trade agreements, global supply chains, military dynamics, immigration, wage pressures, polarization, nationalism, tribalism.

To an observer, it’s neither right nor wrong, it simply is. Some see parallels between today and the late-1930s, which led to World War II. We also see parallels with the mid-1960s, which led to The Great Inflation.

What comes next is sure to look different still. But investment strategies that prospered from the past decade’s low inflation, growth, productivity and volatility will face headwinds as this cycle turns.

Those strategies that suffered should enjoy tailwinds. That’s how cycles work. And we know the 1940s was a strong decade for Trend performance. The 1970s was the best decade for Trend in 150yrs. And following cycle turns in both the 1930s and 1960s, the world became a profoundly volatile place.

The Rest…HERE

Comments are closed.

Join the revolution in 2018. Revolution Radio is 100% volunteer ran. Any contributions are greatly appreciated. God bless!

Follow us on Twitter