Albert Edwards: “Equity Investors Are Facing The Four Horsemen Of The Apocalypse”

Thursday, October 11, 2018
By Paul Martin

by Tyler Durden
Thu, 10/11/2018

Even SocGen’s Albert Edwards was surprised at how quickly his latest predication was validated.

Recall that 3 weeks ago with the 10Y yield at 3.10%, with Edwards looking at the surge higher in 10Y Yields the SocGen strategist pointed out that the break in the 10y above 2.8% was not the key level that could mark the end of the secular bull market, but rather it was the 3.05% zone as shown in the chart below.

Commenting on this breakout, he said that rates might surge further and addressed whether this would mean the end his “Ice Age” thesis. As he noted, if investors “get the wrong side of a new multi-year bear market in government bonds, all investment portfolios will be shredded to ribbons as bonds are the cornerstone of most equity valuation models”.

Fast forward to today when in his latest note he writes “let me be totally honest: I was most surprised that the US 10y yield managed to smash through its multi-decade downtrend last week, mainly due to the fact that the CFTC data showed that speculators had already built unprecedented large short positions. It seemed that every man, woman and child was already bearish and so who was left to sell? Well clearly someone was! One thing that helped tip bond prices over the edge and take yields up to 3¼% was the fundamental support from stronger than expected economic data (see chart below). ”

The Rest…HERE

Comments are closed.

Join the revolution in 2018. Revolution Radio is 100% volunteer ran. Any contributions are greatly appreciated. God bless!

Follow us on Twitter