IMF’s Lagarde Warns “Clouds On Horizon Have Materialized”, Global Growth To Slow

Monday, October 1, 2018
By Paul Martin

by Tyler Durden
Mon, 10/01/2018

IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde just stole the consensus jam out of the global recovery donut, warning during a speech in Washington that trade wars and tighter credit are dimming economic outlooks, signaling that her outlook for 3.9% growth may be overdone.

The fund will update its World Economic Outlook on Oct. 9 ahead of opening its annual meeting in Bali, Indonesia.

“Six months ago, I pointed to clouds of risk on the horizon,” Lagarde said, according to her prepared remarks.

“Today, some of those risks have begun to materialize.”

One glimpse at the collapse in global economic data and it’s perhaps more than obvious that consensus needs some adjustment…While Lagarde acknowledged the global expansion is still the fastest in seven years, recent data suggest a cooling.

As Bloomberg reports, Lagarde said protectionist rhetoric was turning into “actual trade barriers,” spreading uncertainty among businesses and consumers. A strengthening U.S. dollar and tightening financial conditions have increased challenges for many emerging markets, she said.

Specifically, Lagarde called on countries to resolve their trade disputes, warning that the fracture of corporate supply chains could have “devastating” effects.

“History shows that, while it is tempting to sail alone, countries must resist the siren call of self-sufficiency — because as the Greek legends tell us, that leads to shipwreck,” she said, without naming countries that are putting up new barriers.

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