Hawaii & Guatemala “Are An Opening Act” – The Volcanic Swarm Cycle Is Back
by Erico Matias Tavares via Sinclair & Co.,
ZeroHedge.com
Sun, 06/10/2018
Volcanoes and Earthquakes – An Interview with Eric Hadik
First introduced to the financial markets in 1979, Eric Hadik is a trader and analyst who has been intimately involved with commodities and investing for over 35 years. His work gained wide recognition from the outset, where throughout the late-1980’s Eric worked closely with and provided market analysis to major institutions such as BP, Arco, Occidental, Royal-Dutch Shell and Chase Manhattan as well as AMAX Gold and Handy & Harman. In the early 1990’s Eric laid the groundwork for what is now INSIIDE Track Trading – founded in 1994. In that capacity, Eric publishes research, analysis and trading strategies with the expressed goal of teaching, educating and sharing his insights with thousands of individual and corporate traders around the world. His articles and interviews have been featured in major financial media over the years, including CNBC, Forbes, Inside Wall Street and Investor’s Daily.
E Tavares: Eric, thank you for being with us again today. In our discussions in the pastwe have focused on the financial markets for the most part, but as part of your work you take a much broader view on things. We would like to get your opinion on volcanoes and earthquakes, something that is personal to us as we spent most of our childhood in a small volcanic island. But before we get into that, what is the relevance of these natural cycles for your work as a commodity and financial futures trader?
E Hadik: There are various applications to researching cycles like this. Part of that involves the reinforcement and validation of overall cycle analysis. I am able to take what is learned from that study and apply it to related natural studies and cycles, like those of sunspots and solar storms and climate oscillations (including El Niño and La Niña and corresponding cycles of flooding and drought). All of that provides an important backdrop for the study and analysis of the markets – governed by human actions and mass psychology. There are, however, serious limitations to this particular application.
The important part is that it does not stop there. In fact, that cycle analysis is only the beginning – a backdrop for more specific analysis that follows. It is next to impossible to trade directly (and profitably) off cycles like those. While it is intriguing to discuss topics like these, I am always looking for the practical application of those studies. My ultimate goal is always honing it to a level where a usable trading strategy can be derived. And for that, I would never rely solely on broad cycle studies.
ET: Forecasting occurrences of volcanic eruptions and earthquakes is a very complex undertaking, if at all possible. However, you have found some very revealing regularities. Tell us about that.
EH: While I do see some uncanny patterns, I would agree that forecasting the precise occurrence of volcanoes or earthquakes – particularly if one tries to take it to a more regionally-specific level – is next to impossible. From a broader perspective, however, I am constantly surprised by some of the patterns and periodicity that unfolds.
A perfect example involves a series of reports I published in 2009 – 2010, projecting a devastating trio of global earthquakes in 2010 – 2011. That future time frame had been discussed for almost a decade and the published analysis specified that Chile, Japan and North America should suffer those quakes, with specific time frames for each published before the fact.
The Jan. 2010 Haiti quake, Feb. 2010 Chile quake and Mar. 2011 Japan quake and tsunami fulfilled that outlook with surprising precision (relatively speaking). In doing so, they also reinforced my outlook for 2018 – 2020 to trigger a subsequent spike in volcanic activity.
That 2009 analysis involved the synergy of a myriad of cycles, with two uncanny cycles being a 7 year Cycle and a 17 year Cycle. Every 7 years, there had been a spike in the concentration and intensity of earthquake activity. However, it was the overriding 14 year and 28 year cycles that were more accurate and timed many of the most dramatic events.
In certain phases of that cycle, volcanic activity has quickly followed. A prime example was the triple-whammy of momentous (and climate-altering) volcanic eruptions in 1991 – Mt. Pinatubo, Mt. Hudson and Mt. Unzen – following an earthquake spike in 1990. That earthquake/volcano sequence was expected to recur in 2018/2019 – an overarching 28 year cycle (detailed separately), 40 year cycle, ~100 year Cycle and ~200 year Cycle. The synergy is what is most important!
The following table was published in early-Jan. 2010 – at the outset of that latest phase. It pinpointed 2011 as the culmination of a deadly phase of earthquakes (in 2010/2011) and projected focus to a greater synergy of cycles aligning in 2018. (This is only one of a myriad of diverse earth disturbance cycles colliding in 2018 – 2021.)
The Rest…HERE
