Inflation Is Not Under Control
By Keith Weiner
GoldSeek.comMonday, 5 March 2018
Let’s continue on our topic of capital consumption. It’s an important area of study, as our system of central bank socialism imposes many incentives to consume and destroy capital. As capital is the leverage that increases the productivity of human effort, it is vital that we understand what’s happening. We do not work harder today, than they worked 200 years ago, or in the ancient world. Yet we produce so much more, that obesity is a disease more of the poor than the rich. Destruction of capital will cause us to produce less, and that will mean reverting to a lower quality of life.
Keeping up with Inflation
Let’s start off by addressing how not to look at this destruction. There is a facile belief offered by both Fed propagandists and Fed critics alike. It goes like this. Increased quantity of dollars causes increased prices. Therefore it’s like a tax. And the way to measure your wealth is divide the liquidation value of your portfolio by the consumer price index. This tells you if your stocks, bonds, real estate, and the family farm could trade for more groceries and cars this year. Or less. In this view, you are hoping that somehow your assets keep up with inflation.
We insert the word somehow, because it is a kind of magical thinking. Everyone knows that a central bank cannot print wealth. If it could, Zimbabwe would be the richest country. Yet, if asset prices go up due to central bank policies, most asset owners feel richer. At least if consumer prices do not go up proportionally. One corollary of the fallacy of the Quantity Theory of Money is the fallacy of using consumer prices as the measure of economic value.
Why do we say this is not the method of looking at capital destruction? It’s because over the last 10 years, the Fed and other central banks have overstimulated capital destruction. And yet the above metric of the purchasing power of your estate has gone up. Everyone (at least those who own substantial assets) feels richer, despite economy-wide impoverishment.
If you were a doctor, and your deathly ill patient had a body temperature of 98.6F (37C), you would have to find another measurement tool. Clearly not all diseases cause a fever. Well, monetary doctors need to look past consumer price indices, inflation so called, and purchasing power of your assets.
Our first observation is that the purpose of a capital asset is not for spending. The prudent investor does not think about spending his savings, or selling the family farm. He says “I cannot afford that $300,000 Ferrari” if he has only a million or two in the bank.
This is not a new idea, by the way. It was understood by people two thousand years ago when Jesus told the parable of the Prodigal Son. If anything, it’s in danger of being forgotten by the so called economists of central bank socialism and the nouveau-riche. We had the experience not too long ago, of arguing with a man who sells whole life insurance and other long-term financial planning products for a living. He brazenly declared that there’s nothing wrong with spending your savings in retirement(!) It’s like a Stockholm Syndrome for hostages of central bank socialism.
One reason why this is so hard to see is that price and yield are strict mathematical inverses, like a see saw. If you tell people that Keynes said to commit “euthanasia of the rentier”—i.e. kill the saver—everyone understands the malevolence of this. But if you say “long-term bull market”, most people think this is a good thing. Including asset owners and defenders of free markets.
These are the same thing!
Please pause a moment and think about this. If you take away nothing else from all of our discussions of gold and economics but this one point, it will still have been worth your effort (and ours).
Falling interest and yield is the same thing as rising asset prices and endless bull markets. Now, does that help you appreciate the genius part of Kenes’ evil genius? He did not propose hanging capitalists as some of his ideological brethren. Hanging is violent, messy, and those pesky capitalists fight back. No, he proposed a drug-poison. It causes euphoria while it destroys the vital organs. Its victims die with a smile on their sunken faces.
Liquidation Value Thinking
The Rest…HERE
