Deutsche: “The Last 36 Hours Are A Dress Rehearsal For When The Bear Market Hits”

Wednesday, February 7, 2018
By Paul Martin

by Tyler Durden
Wed, 02/07/2018

Some observations on recent market volatility, from Deitsche Bank’s credit strategist, Jim Reid.

If you’ve only been working in markets for a handful of years then treat the last 36 hours as a mild dress rehearsal for what can happen when a bear market hits. Yesterday actually felt relatively orderly though in spite of a 1,000 point range on the DOW and a 28 point range in the VIX. Orderly unless you were at the epicentre of things and an equity volatility trader. I’m teaching 2 and a half year old Maisie how to count to five at the moment and the VIX yesterday felt like watching her do that as when I ask her to count for me she says something likes this “….four, two, three, one, five”. It closed at 37.32 the previous session before climbing to 50.30 around noon London time, then collapsing to 22.42 just after the US opened 2.5-3 hours later, a spike back to 46.34 occurred less than an hour later and then after oscillating between 30-40 for the rest of the day we closed at 29.98 (-19.7%). The 50.30 print was the highest since early March 2009 when equity markets hit rock bottom. Remarkable really.

Yesterday afternoon Craig and I put a note out showing what happens 1 week, 1 month and 3 months after the largest 10 VIX spikes in history. Basically the VIX usually rallies over all subsequent periods but equities tend to be strong the week after but on average fall 3 months later. The reverse is true for bonds.

What might make this VIX spike slightly different to previous ones is that although it had a macro catalyst (higher inflation and yields) the scale of the wounds are mostly self inflicted within the equity derivatives product as the scale of the moves have been caused by low volatility ETPs/ETFs being liquidated, suspended and/ or suffering major losses

In other words all the other previous major spikes have been more to do with a big macro event or a crisis. The higher average earnings print could turn 2018 into a year of higher inflation and a big macro shift but we’re certainly not in crisis territory yet.

The Rest…HERE

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