Strap Yourself In – We Are About To See Some Big Moves In Metals
By: Avi Gilburt
GoldSeek.com
Thursday, 14 December 2017
Recent price action
The last week has seen the metals and miners drop down into support regions. As I write this, we are sitting just over major support for most of the charts I follow.
Whereas the GDX likely provides the cleanest picture of the market potential right now, I will be providing you guidance about the GDX in my analysis below. And, while I maintain a strong bullish bias for 2018, the action we see in the coming weeks will tell us when we can begin to take a more immediate bullish perspective.
Anecdotal and other sentiment indications
The whipsaw continues. Most in the complex don’t know whether they are coming or going right now. One day we go up, another day we go down. And, many have become quite bearish again, with many even calling for lows below those seen in 2015.
My last article on metals, which was about whether the metals market is truly manipulated, certainly generated some heated debate. And, anyone who has an opinion about the issue usually has a very emotional perspective on the issue, which is often on display in the comment section.
But, the ones who seem to have the most vociferous reactions are the true gold bugs. In their world perspective, gold should never be down. Rather, gold should only be rising, so any drop in the gold price can only be due to manipulation. And, no matter how much evidence you present to them that they are being manipulated to maintain their beliefs more than the market is actually manipulated, they don their blinders and continue in their manipulation mantra.
The truth is that most market participants really do not understand the metals market. Many believe it is hedge against inflation. Many believe it is a hedge against market volatility. In fact, I even read an article a few weeks ago that claimed that weather will impact the price of gold. So, many seem to believe in fallacies about gold, and I have written extensively about this in the past.
But, there are few markets that are more clearly driven by market sentiment, and it is only clear to those who maintain an open mind about the metals. And, as I write this, we are at an inflection point in sentiment.
Price pattern sentiment indications and upcoming expectations
While I would absolutely love to know what the future holds with certainty, unfortunately, certainty does not exist. Well, then again, as a retired tax attorney and accountant, there is an old joke I used to really appreciate:
There are three things in life which are certain: Death, taxes, and tax reform.
But, I digress.
While many expect analysts to be clairvoyant, it is simply not the case. If an analyst is good at what they do, the greatest value they can bring to those who follow their work is to be able to identify turning points in the market. And, for those that have followed us for years, you know we have done quite well in furtherance of this goal.
So, this brings me to my point: we are now at a point where the metals CAN see a significant turn.
The Rest…HERE
