The Likelihood of War with Iran
Petr Lvov
Journal-Neo.org
09.12.2017
The analytical group SouthFront recently released a remarkable video about the possibility of a war involving Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Iran and Israel. Of course, this inevitably means that the war would involve Russia and the United States as well.
To understand the context of this scenario, one first needs to understand what has happened in Syria and other Middle Eastern countries in recent years. The original plan of the US and Saudi Arabia (behind whom stood an invisible Israel) was the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad and his replacement with Islamic fundamentalists or takfiris (Daesh, al-Qaeda, Jabhat al-Nusra). The plan involved the following steps:
sweep away a strong secular Arab state with a political culture, armed forces and security services;
generate total chaos and horror in Syria that would justify the creation of Israel’s “security zone”, not only in Golan Heights, but also further north;
start a civil war in Lebanon and incite takfiri violence against Hezbollah, leading to them both bleeding to death and then create a “security zone”, this time in Lebanon;
prevent the creation of a “Shiite axis” of Iran/Iraq/Syria/Lebanon;
continue the division of Syria along ethnic and religious lines, establish an independent Kurdistan and then to use them against Turkey, Syria, Iraq and Iran.
give Israel the opportunity to become the unquestioned major player in the region and force Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman, Kuwait and everyone else to apply for permission from Israel in order to implement any oil and gas projects;
gradually isolate, threaten, undermine and ultimately attack Iran with a wide regional coalition, removing all Shiite centers of power in the middle East.
It was an ambitious plan, and the Israelis were completely convinced that the United States would provide all the necessary resources to see it through. But the Syrian government has survived thanks to military intervention by Russia, Iran and Hezbollah. Daesh is almost defeated and Iran and Hezbollah are so firmly entrenched in Syria that it has driven the Israelis into a state of fear bordering on panic. Lebanon remains stable, and even the recent attempt by the Saudis to abduct Prime Minister Saad Hariri failed.
As a result, Saudi Arabia and Israel have developed a new plan: force the US to attack Iran. To this end, the “axis of good” (USA-Israel-Saudi Arabia) was created, although this is nothing new. Saudi Arabia and the other Arab States in the Persian Gulf have in the past spoken in favor of intervention in Syria. It is well known that the Saudis invaded Bahrain, are occupying it de facto, and are now at war in Yemen.
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