Trump’s Iran Gambit: The World is ‘Moving Toward Some Kind of a Crisis’

Monday, October 9, 2017
By Paul Martin

The Iran nuclear agreement won’t automatically collapse if the US withdraws from the multilateral deal, Iran analyst Mahan Abedin told Radio Sputnik. However, one shouldn’t underestimate Washington, since it could give EU member states an ultimatum seeking to ruin the accord, the expert said, assuming that the world is moving toward a new crisis.

Washington’s unilateral withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal — also known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) — wouldn’t mean that the agreement will fall apart as a result, Mahan Abedin, Iran analyst at Middle East Eye and director of research group Dysart Consulting, told Radio Sputnik.

“Even if [US President Donald Trump] invalidates the deal… this doesn’t necessarily spell the end of the deal,” Abedin emphasized.

The Washington Post reported Thursday citing White House sources that Trump may declare Iran noncompliant with the JCPOA and “decertify” the deal. Last week the US president signaled that Tehran “has not lived up to the spirit” of the nuclear accord and accused the latter of supporting terrorism and exporting “violence, bloodshed and chaos across the Middle East.”

In accordance with the 2015 Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act (INARA), the US administration has to certify its commitment to the deal every 90 days. The next deadline is October 15.

Abedin recalled that if the US president decertifies the agreement, Congress has 60 days to re-impose major sanctions against Iran.

Only when the restrictions come into force again, it will mean the US is out of the JCPOA, the expert noted, adding that “even then this is not necessarily the end of the deal.”

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