“It’s Going To Be A Long Summer” One Trader Warns No One, Not Even The Fed, Believe Their Own Forecasts

Thursday, July 13, 2017
By Paul Martin

by Tyler Durden
Jul 13, 2017

It was fun while it lasted. For a few brief months, The Fed appeared to ‘hawkish, no matter what’ as data-dependent morphed into data-ignorant. Markets relished the confidence-inpiring message from the ivory tower academics… but, as former FX trader Rich Breslow notes, none of that occurred in reality and now, “no one really believes even their own forecasts, adding that, as markets wake up to this reality, “it’s going to be a long summer.”

Via Bloomberg,

It’s hard to keep a good conspiracy theory in play if you don’t make sure all the main actors are following the story line. Clearly, the two principal Fed speakers this week, Governor Brainard and Chair Yellen decided the game had gone on long enough. Or, more probably, opted for a pause to assess how the latest experiment in message manipulation had gone.

It was interesting, indeed encouraging, to believe that central bankers around the globe saw enough distance between current economic conditions and the financial crisis to orchestrate a move toward higher rates.

But they seem to cling to the notion that they must do so without any knock-on effects to the broader category of assets. They do so love the calming sounds from the trickle-down effect.

The Rest…HERE

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