Ray Dalio Warns We May Be On A Path To “Dictatorships And Wars”

Friday, June 9, 2017
By Paul Martin

by Tyler Durden
ZeroHedge.com
Jun 9, 2017

Ray Dalio’s fatalism took another quantum step higher this afternoon.

Having made his displeasure with Trump – of whom he initially spoke quite fondly when he predicted it would be “glorious to be rich” – clear, the founder of Bridgewater (for whom James Comey worked before joining the FBI) has repeatedly hinted that the market, one of Trump’s preferred indicators of “policy success”, will not only crash but the ensuing downturn would have grave and profound social consequences.

First, one month ago in “Ray Dalio Goes Dr. Doom: “When The Next Downturn Comes, It’s Going To Be Bad”, Dalio lamented that “we fear that whatever the magnitude of the downturn that eventually comes, whenever it eventually comes, it will likely produce much greater social and political conflict than currently exists.”

Then, in another post earlier this week, Dalio dropped all nuance, and said that “more I see Donald Trump moving toward conflict rather than cooperation, the more I worry about him harming his presidency and its effects on most of us.”

This increasingly gloomy outlook culminated in the latest Dalio blog on Friday afternoon, in which, discussing the causality between politics and economics, Dalio writes that for the first time since the 1930s, we now live in a time when politics supersedes economics, and “becomes the most important driver. History has shown us that these times are when there is great economic, social, and political polarity within a country and there is the selection of populist leaders to fight for “the common man” in a battle against “the elites.”

clearly, the “1930s” reference is to Adolf Hitler and World War II, because as Dalio then explains the rise of populist conditions “typically lead to a strong-minded, confrontational fighter being brought to power to represent the underserved constituency, typically by pursuing more nationalistic, protectionist, and militaristic policies, which typically leads to more domestic and international conflicts.”

One doesn’t have to be a rocket surgeon to guess who Dalio is referring to.

And the tongue-in-cheeck punchline: “in some cases it led to democracies becoming dictatorships, and wars.” Tongue-in-cheek, because the explicit mention of the 1930s, and his suggestion that “now is just like then”, insinuates that the US in particular, and the world in general, is headed for another global conflict (read war) in which “a strong-minded, confrontational fighter” takes control.

The Rest…HERE

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