How Marine Le Pen could win the French election: Market fear as victory path spelled out

Tuesday, April 11, 2017
By Paul Martin

GOLD prices are rising as investors rush to pump money into safe havens amid growing concerns Marine Le Pen could clinch victory in the looming French elections and hold a Frexit referendum that may destroy the euro.

Tue, Apr 11, 2017

The precious metal value has surged as markets worry the anti-Brussels candidate could pull off a shock win, as a third of French voters say they are still undecided over who to support in race to become the next French President.

Other key volatility indicators suggest investors are moving to protect against risk, with the gap French and German government borrowing costs reaching its highest level in six weeks.

It is thought Ms Le Pen will go head to head with Emmanuel Macron in the second round of voting next month in the two-stage system.

But investors are now trying to work out potential margins of error in polling data, along with how candidates who drop out in the first-round in two weeks could affect the final vote.

The analysis shows that Ms Len Pen can’t be discounted, even though Mr Marcon remains the favourite to win.

Ken Odeluga, market analyst at City Index, said: “A potential ‘Shy voter’ effect, combined with a more dynamic view of second-round scenarios—when drop-out candidates can be expected to barter their support—suggests higher Le Pen risk.”

Supporters of Francois Fillion and Gaullist Eurosceptic Nicolas Dupont-Aignan are likely to get behind Ms Le Pen in the second-round, as well as a smaller portion of people who vote in the first-round for far-left candidates Nathalie Arthaud and Philippe Poutou, according to Mr Odeluga.

The Rest…HERE

Leave a Reply

Join the revolution in 2018. Revolution Radio is 100% volunteer ran. Any contributions are greatly appreciated. God bless!

Follow us on Twitter