MARKETS ON BRINK: 60 per cent chance of GLOBAL RECESSION in 18 months, says economist
THE world economy could nosedive in the next 18 months, as markets fall out of love with President Donald Trump, an economist has predicted.
By LANA CLEMENTS
Express.co.uk
Mon, Apr 10, 2017
Growth is more than likely to plunge than not, as Asia also grinds to a total standstill over the next year or so, according to Steen Jakobsen, chief economist at Danish investment firm Saxo Bank.
Mr Trump’s economy plans have helped push stock markets to record highs in recent months, but the economics expert said the US President is not reliable – and hopes could start to fade.
There is now a huge risk of recession, which the markets are ignoring with a “perception-versus-reality gap”.
Mr Jakobsen told CNBC: “Our main global macro outlook still maintains that recession is more likely than not in the near future (12 to 18 months) based on the global credit impulse having peaked simultaneously with global inflation.”
He added: “While the market at large sees less than a 10 per cent chance of recession, we at Saxo – together with our friends at South Africa’s Nedbank – see more than a 60 per cent chance.”
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