JPM: “Market Patience Could Quickly Run Out If Obamacare Repeal Stays Deadlocked Into April”

Monday, March 20, 2017
By Paul Martin

by Tyler Durden
Mar 20, 2017

The morning wrap by JPM’sAdam Crisafulli notes the ongoing theme of a “patient” market, which however is growing increasingly impatient with the lack of visibility from DC.

J.P. Morgan Early Look at the Market

It’s a pretty quiet morning so far. Asian stocks were mixed (Japan was closed for a holiday). Eurozone equities and US futures are trading off small. Nothing major occurred on the macro front – the G20 communique was a small net negative in that prior disavowals of protectionism were removed although this doesn’t appear to be altering the present market narrative dramatically. Eco data was pretty minimal (other than solid China home prices and Taiwan export order numbers).

The tone of the press remains skeptical and cautious w/the WSJ noting small-cap underperformance and how 10yr TSY yields are now ahead of the SPX dividend yield (although this phenomena has been in place for a few months at this point). The biggest event by far for equities will be the House floor vote on Ryan’s HC bill (scheduled for Thurs 3/23) – failure to advance this legislation would likely materially undermine market confidence in the GOP tax reform agenda. The fact Ryan even scheduled a vote suggests some confidence on his part in being able to secure passage although this is by no means guaranteed.

Even if Ryan manages to get his bill out of the House, passage in the Senate appears very unlikely which raises the larger issue of how much time and political capital Republicans wind up devoting to this issue at the expense of more market-friendly initiatives (namely tax reform).

The Rest…HERE

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