Is civilisation heading for a COLLAPSE? Mathematical historian predicts political turmoil will peak in the 2020s
Professor Peter Turchin uses mathematical models to predict political events
He says his models predicted a rise of political turmoil starting three years ago
This is expected to reach a peak some time in the 2020s, according to his theory
This includes decline of living standards and declining health of the state
By ABIGAIL BEALL
DailyMail.com
5 January 2017
The rise and fall of civilisations can be predicted by a simple equation, and our civilisation is in for a fall some time soon.
This is according to Peter Turchin, from the University of Connecticut, who says mathematics can explain human behaviour far more accurately than you might think.
And if his calculations are correct, the world should be prepared for years of political turmoil that will peak at some point in the next century.
A professor of Ecology and Mathematics from the University of Connecticut, Peter Turchin has led the development of a cross-disciplinary subject called ‘cliodynamics’.
‘Cliodynamics is a new ‘transdisciplinary discipline’ that treats history as just another science,’ Professor Turchin says.
He started out using maths to predict human activity from 1500 B.C.E. to 1500 C.E.
Then three years ago, using similar models, he began to forecast the future.
‘My model indicated that social instability and political violence would peak in the 2020s,’ he says.
‘The presidential election which we have experienced, unfortunately, confirms this forecast.
‘We seem to be well on track for the 2020s instability peak.’
Exactly what will happen when this ‘peak’ occurs is unknown, and Professor Turchin says the theory does not predict events. but trends.
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