“Paper Money Disappears” Among Nomura’s 10 Grey Swan Events For 2017

Thursday, December 8, 2016
By Paul Martin

by Tyler Durden
ZeroHedge.com
Dec 8, 2016

From “the end of cash” to “Trump muzzling The Fed” to “Russia going on the warpath”, Nomura unveils its unlikely-but-impactful grey swan scenarios for 2017…

As Nomura writes, while we would like to be able to predict black swans, by definition they are unpredictable. However, its close cousin, the grey swan, can be envisaged.

These are the unlikely but impactful events that, in our opinion, lie outside the usual base case and risk scenarios of the analyst community. So we have donned our creative hats and have come up with 10 potential grey swan events for 2017. We have avoided the more widely discussed scenarios (e.g., a break-up of the euro area, a Trump impeachment or a China implosion). Instead, we have selected topics that have not been as widely discussed. Needless to say, none of them are our base case, but we think it is better to be prepared than not. Potential grey swan events for 2017 include:

Shock 1: US productivity booms
Shock 2: China floats currency
Shock 3: EU reforms, UK rejoins
Shock 4: Japan inflation surge
Shock 5: Fed muzzled
Shock 6: Russia flexes its muscles
Shock 7: Clearing houses fail
Shock 8: Japan’s Abe loses power
Shock 9: EM capital controls return
Shock 10: Paper money disappears

The Rest…HERE

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