A professor who has correctly predicted elections for decades says Trump will win

Friday, September 23, 2016
By Paul Martin

Pamela Engel
BusinessInsider.com
Sept. 23, 2016

A professor who has accurately predicted the outcome of every presidential election since 1984 told The Washington Post that 2016 was the hardest election to predict yet.

But he has come to a conclusion about who is most likely to win — Republican nominee Donald Trump.

Professor Allan Lichtman, who wrote the book “Predicting the Next President: The Keys to the White House,” uses a series of true/false statements to determine his predictions. He considers things like incumbency, the economy, social unrest, scandals, and charisma to figure out which way the election is likely to go.

Lichtman told The Post how the system works:

“The keys are 13 true/false questions, where an answer of ‘true’ always favors the reelection of the party holding the White House, in this case the Democrats. And the keys are phrased to reflect the basic theory that elections are primarily judgments on the performance of the party holding the White House. And if six or more of the 13 keys are false — that is, they go against the party in power — they lose. If fewer than six are false, the party in power gets four more years.”

Still, Trump is such an unusual candidate that he might break the American political mold that has held for decades.

The Rest…HERE

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