Political Science Prof: Trump Has 87% Chance of Winning the Election

Wednesday, August 17, 2016
By Paul Martin

Model has accurately predicted popular vote five times in a row

Paul Joseph Watson
Prison Planet.com
August 17, 2016

Political science professor Helmut Norpoth, whose election model has accurately predicted the outcome of the popular vote five times in a row, asserts that Donald Trump has an 87% chance of winning the presidency.

Appearing on Fox Business with Lou Dobbs, Norpoth said his forecast confounded the poll numbers.

“I know that if you look at the polls right now that’s not what polls are saying, but polls are how people feel today and the election is not for another two and a half months,” said the Stoney Brook University professor.

Norpoth’s model has correctly predicted the outcome of the popular vote for every election since 1996, including the 2000 race where Al Gore won the popular vote but George W. Bush took the presidency.

One of the factors the model takes into account is the unlikely scenario of an incumbent party remaining in power after two terms.

The accuracy of the model built by Norpoth stands at 96.1%, and works for every single presidential election going back to 1912, with the only exception being the 1960 contest, when John F. Kennedy narrowly defeated Richard Nixon.

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