NASSIM TALEB WARNS THE BIGGEST BLACK SWAN EVENT OF ALL IS COMING
JEFF BERWICK
DollarVigilante.com
AUGUST 9, 2016
We are at an incredible moment in history.
US stock markets are at nominal all-time highs. Government bonds are at or near all-time highs. Yet, central banks worldwide sit at 0% interest rates or less because things are too precarious to even raise rates a paltry 0.25% for fear of collapsing the entire system.
In “traditional” economics this makes no sense. But we are far out of “traditional” now… we are in the extreme end-stages of a collapsing system. When that happens, nothing makes sense from a traditional/normal perspective.
In the third quarter of 2015, during the end of the Shemitah year, world stock markets had their worst quarter since the last Shemitah year in 2008… and then they bounced back up. In January, world stock markets had their worst starting month to the year in history… and then they bounced back up. And, most recently, the day after Brexit, which was 7 days, 7 weeks, 7 months and 7 years since the Shemitah end day in 2008, world stock markets again had their worst day in history… and then bounced back up.
Of course we notice the numerical repetition. None of this is happenstance, surely. It is clear we are onto something; and thus we continue to expect massive volatility and crashes. We predicted them and they arrived as scheduled. We’ve seen three crashes in the last year with massive volatility. And, volatility is usually a sign that something is terribly wrong.
The final crash, the biggest “black swan” ever and subsequent economic depression, surely will be worse than anything that has gone before. Post-crash, expect additional and deeper warfare as those behind these disasters will need to create organized violence to maintain control of society as they did in the early and mid 20th century.
Regularly, others have added their voices to our market warnings. Now it’s Nassim Taleb’s turn. The man who popularized the “black swan” theory, was just interviewed by Yahoo Finance and said, “The markets will ultimately crash again, although this time it will hurt a lot more people.”
I like to use Nassim’s “black swan” analogy when I describe how bad things have gotten. In the last few years I’ve said that there are so many black swans looming now they are blacking out the sun!
And Nassim has now stated that we will see another crash… but this one will hurt a lot more people. And we agree. The next one will make people yearn for the good ol’ days of the 2008 crisis.
Nassim’s not the only one either.
Marc Faber said in a recent interview that the S&P is set to crash 50%, giving back five years of gains. The publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom Report told CNBC’s “Trading Nation” that the upcoming crash might be as bad as anything that has come before. Presumably that includes 1929.
Over the weekend, professional investors and economists met at Camp Kotok in eastern Maine to discuss markets. The conference was organized by David Kotok of Cumberland Advisors and has been called a mini-Davos. The view from Camp Kotok: These times are unprecedented and terrifying. It is not clear when the market will finally collapse, but it will be catastrophic when it happens.
The Rest…HERE
