Brexit Causes Elites Angst, But Britain May Leave EU Anyway – Michael Barone
TheNewsDoctors.com
June 16, 2016
“Market Angst as U.K. Edges to Exit,” proclaims the headline on The Wall Street Journal’s lead story. The exit referred to is Britain’s departure from the European Union, a move that will be mandated if a majority votes “leave” rather than “remain” in the national referendum next Thursday.
This outcome would be as astounding, to use the word Lincoln chose to describe the Civil War in his second inaugural address, to British and European financial markets and political insiders as Donald Trump’s victory for the Republican nomination has been to their American counterparts.
The most recent polls have shown “leave” gaining ground and leading “remain” among British voters. There is reason to be skeptical about British polls. Pollsters there (with one exception, who flinched and didn’t announce his results) totally missed the Conservative Party’s victory in the May 2015 general election.
But their big mistake, in retrospect, was oversampling young voters, who didn’t turn out in the numbers anticipated. That resulted in overstating the support for Labour. But in this election, the young tend to support “remain.” If they’re being oversampled now, “leave” is in a stronger position than current polling shows.
The recent surge for “leave” seemed unlikely to elites. Conservative Prime Minister David Cameron, the leftist Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, the Scottish Nationalists and the Conservatives’ 2010-2015 coalition partner Liberal Democrats all support “remain.” So do the president of the Bank of England and the financial leaders of the City of London.
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