U.S. Retail Sales Fall, Again – The Next Crash Is Near
by Sprott Money
ZeroHedge.com
07/21/2015
Retail sales have fallen yet again in the mighty U.S. economy, home of the Never-Ending Recovery . Once again, this number has fallen even before we adjust it for inflation, in order to make the statistic meaningful. A retail sales number which is not adjusted for inflation (by subtracting the rate of inflation) only tells us how much depreciating money the people spent, not how many goods and services they actually purchased.
In June of this year, the month just reported, U.S. retail sales are estimated by the government to have fallen (month-over-month) by 0.3%, a seemingly insignificant number. But this is before we adjust that number for inflation. What is the rate of inflation, the real rate?
Our governments hide that secret with statistical falsifications too numerous to list, and in many cases too complex to explain to those without a formal background in economics. But we can see this real inflation, in our own lives. Food and shelter, the two most-important categories of consumption, are soaring at the most-rapid pace seen in our lifetime, somewhere above 20% per year.
Other categories of “consumer goods” have increased in price at a much lower rate, but here’s the point. As more and more of our populations descend to the economic status of Working Poor (or lower), food and shelter become the only categories of consumption. Thus, for this growing majority of our populations, the “inflation rate” for food-and-shelter becomes THE inflation rate: 20+% per year.
John Williams of Shadowstats.com estimates inflation to be near (but not above) 10%. But he calculates that inflation rate honestly using the “basket of goods” of a Middle Class society (the Middle Class of the United States). That society no longer exists. In the basket of goods of the Working Poor, there is only food and shelter.
For the smaller, more-affluent half of our societies, Mr. Williams’ estimate is undoubtedly as accurate as any estimate currently being produced. When we aggregate these two halves of society, the Working Poor suffering from 20+% inflation, and the relatively Affluent Minority living with a still-despicable inflation rate of 8 – 10%, we get some number at/above 15%. For statistical convenience, however, let’s assume a conservative, overall inflation-rate of 12% per year.
The Rest…HERE
