Europe In Triple-Dip Recession, Goldman’s Internal Model Finds

Tuesday, November 4, 2014
By Paul Martin

by Tyler Durden
ZeroHedge.com
11/04/2014

Here is Goldman with the loudest warning yet, courtesy of its internal RETINA model, that Europe is now effectively in a triple-dip recession, with Q3 GDP for the Euro area at -0.2%: “We are less than a fortnight away from Eurostat’s publication of its flash estimate of Q3 GDP growth in the Euro area. In today’s Daily, we look through the lens of our contemporaneous tracker of real-time inflation and activity. Since our previous update in mid-October, RETINA’s median estimate of Q3 GDP growth has moved deeper into negative territory, driven largely by a disappointing print for area-wide industrial production in August. The downside risks to our +0.1%qoq judgemental forecast for Q3 GDP now look skewed to such an extent that our point estimate no longer falls within a 50% confidence interval around RETINA’s median reading.”

The Rest…HERE

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