Ebola epidemic could gain 6,800 new cases by end of September…(Or, 68,000?)
MedicalNewsToday.com
Sept. 22, 2014
The Ebola epidemic in West Africa is growing exponentially, says a new study published in the journal PLoS Outbreaks that suggests if new control measures are not enacted, new cases could reach 6,800 by the end of September.
Using World Health Organization (WHO) data up to 8 September 2014, the study team – from Arizona State University (ASU) and Harvard School of Public Health – analyzed local rates of exponential rise to estimate how the reproduction number of Ebola cases appears to be changing over time.
The reproduction number of a disease is the average number of secondary cases that a case generates. When control measures are effective – and the virus does not change into a more infectious one – one expects this number to go down.
The study’s statistical models predict an average of 4,400 – with an upper figure of 6,800 – new cases by the end of this month, indicating that the pace of Ebola spread is accelerating.
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