What Could Happen Next With Ebola — And How It Affects The World
Paul Colgan
BusinessInsider.com
Aug 18, 2014
AMP Capital’s chief economist Shane Oliver has a note out on the implications of the Ebola outbreak in west Africa, which has now killed more than 1,100 people.
Oliver notes that the experiences with swine flu, SARS and bird flu have shown that fears of pandemics rarely come to pass, and assigns a 90% probability to a scenario where the outbreak is contained to Africa. But he also looks at two other scenarios where the outbreak is less contained. While it is written from an investment risk perspective, it’s a thought-provoking look at what might happen next with the outbreak which the world has been watching with increasing unease, especially since the spread to Nigeria, Africa’s most populous country.
Evidence of the outbreak reaching countries beyond Africa would of course be a cause for concern, but Western countries in particular are better equipped to contain the spread of the virus. Among the widely-recognised factors behind the continued spread of the disease in Africa are suspicion and fear of health workers, and a lack of education.
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