US P&I Death Rate Crosses Epidemic Threshold

Thursday, January 16, 2014
By Paul Martin
January 16, 2014

Tomorrow’s CDC Week 2 FluView will show a jump in the P&I Death rate to 7.5% (from 6.9%), which will be above the epidemic threshold. In addition, pediatric deaths will double from the 10 reported through week 1 to 20 for the total reported in week 2 (MA, KY, LA. OK, TN 3, TX 3). These increases reflect the severe and fatal lab confirmed cases reported largely in the south in recent weeks.

Although relatively low levels were still reported in many northern states in the week 1 report, the numbers are now beginning to increase in the lagging northern states. Both P&I and pediatric deaths are lagging indicators, and both numbers are expected to rise significantly in upcoming weeks.

Earlier indicators, such as the severe and fatal H1N1 cases reported in Dallas County or California will be reflected throughout the country because of the increase in polymorphisms that target human lungs. L194I, D225G, and Q226R were noted in initial sequences released by the CDC (largely in egg isolates), and the evidence for a higher level of these changes was supported by the recently released sequences from China, where most of the sequences were from egg isolates and the vast majority of these isolates had at least one of the changes that target huan lung.

Below is a list of the US cities with at least 5 P&I deaths reported in week 2, as well as a rate of at least 10% in the week 2 report.

Glendale CA 21.3%
Worchester MA 20.8%
Fall River MA 20.0%
Jersey City NJ 20.0%
Santa Cruz CA 19.4%
Duluth MN 16.7%
Grand Rapids MI 16.0%
Ogden UT 15.4%
Los Angeles CA 14.5%
Canton OH 14.3%
Peoria IL 14.3%
Savannah GA 14.1%
Birmignham AL 13.9%
Shreveport LA 12.6%
Chattanooga TN 12.4%
Long Beach CA 12.3%
Memphis TN 12.2%
Boston MA 12.2%
Norfolk VA 11.9%
Honolulu HI 11.7%
San Francisco CA 11.5%
Minneapolis MN 11.3%
Las Vegas NV 11.0%
South Bend IN 10.8%
Mobile AL 10.7%
Fresno CA 10.2%
Sacramento CA 10.2%
Lincoln NE 10.0%

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