Mystery Disease in Texas, H1N1 Pandemic and All is Not Right in Kansas, Dorothy

Tuesday, January 7, 2014
By Paul Martin
January 6, 2014

I have been doing more research on H1N1 and two and two are not adding up. I don’t want to sound like an alarmist, but I am presently inclined to say that the 2009 Swine Flu Pandemic should never have been labeled a pandemic and I fear the real H1N1 pandemic may lie ahead of us.

Swine Flu Deaths in 2009

The CDC estimates that 12,470 Americans died in the 2009 Swine Flu pandemic. [1] This figure represents the mid-range estimate. To be precise, the CDC estimates that between 8,870 and 18,300 Americans died from H1N1 from April 2009 to April 2010.

The CDC has to rely on estimates because in the U.S., doctors are not required to report cases of influenza in patients over 18. The CDC estimates are drawn primarily from data on laboratory confirmed cases, and then configured to estimate the total number of cases. (The CDC estimates that for every lab-confirmed case, there are other non-confirmed cases. They arrive at a figure (in the case of H1N1 that figure is 2.3). The CDC then multiplies the number of confirmed cases by 2.3 to arrive at the estimated number of cases.) The bottom line here is that we don’t have accurate numbers.

Why don’t we have accurate numbers? Here’s the answer straight from the horse’s mouth:

CDC does not know exactly how many people die from seasonal flu each year. There are several reasons for this. First, states are not required to report individual seasonal flu cases or deaths of people older than 18 years of age to CDC. Second, seasonal influenza is infrequently listed on death certificates of people who die from flu-related complications. Third, many seasonal flu-related deaths occur one or two weeks after a person’s initial infection, either because the person may develop a secondary bacterial co-infection (such as bacterial pneumonia) or because seasonal influenza can aggravate an existing chronic illness (such as congestive heart failure or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease). Also, most people who die from seasonal flu-related complications are not tested for flu, or they seek medical care later in their illness when seasonal influenza can no longer be detected from respiratory samples. Sensitive influenza tests are only likely to detect influenza if performed within a week after onset of illness. In addition, some commonly used tests to diagnose influenza, in clinical settings, are not highly sensitive and can provide false negative results (i.e. they misdiagnose flu illness as not being flu.) For these reasons, many flu-related deaths may not be recorded on death certificates. These are some of the reasons that CDC and other public health agencies in the United States and other countries use statistical models to estimate the annual number of seasonal flu-related deaths. Flu deaths in children were made a nationally notifiable condition in 2004, and since then, states have reported flu-related child deaths in the United States through the Influenza Associated Pediatric Mortality Surveillance System. [2]

The Rest…HERE

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