American Rail Traffic Growth Has Nearly Ground To A Halt

Sunday, April 28, 2013
By Paul Martin

Cullen Roche, Pragmatic Capitalism
Apr 28 2013

After a big first quarter rail traffic has come out of the gate extremely soft in Q2. The average pace of year over year expansion in intermodal traffic was a very healthy 5.3% in Q1, but has averaged just 0.08% so far in the first 4 weeks of the second quarter. This is a trend that has been developing since early March as the pace of expansion has averaged just 2.11% since the first week of March. Overall, that brings the 12 week moving average to 4.01%. That’s still a healthy pace, but the recent slowing is a trend worth keeping a close eye on. If rail traffic is any indicator it’s possible that economic growth peaked in Q1.

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