Buffett Joins Team Whitney; Sees Muni Pain Ahead As He Unwinds Half Of His Bullish CDS Exposure Prematurely

Tuesday, August 21, 2012
By Paul Martin

by Tyler Durden
ZeroHedge.com
08/20/2012

Just under two years ago, Meredith Whitney made a much maligned, if very vocal call, that hundreds of US municipalities will file for bankruptcy. She also put a timestamp on the call, which in retrospect was her downfall, because while she will ultimately proven 100% correct about the actual event, the fact that she was off temporally (making it seem like a trading call instead of a fundamental observation) merely had a dilutive impact of the statement. As a result she was initially taken seriously, causing a big hit to the muni market, only to be largely ignored subsequently even following several prominent California bankruptcies. This is all about to change as none other than Warren Buffett has slashed half of his entire municipal exposure, in what the WSJ has dubbed a “red flag” for the municipal-bond market. Perhaps another way of calling it is the second coming of Meredith Whitney’s muni call, this time however from an institutionalized permabull.

In bad news for the bullish muni community, the Octogenarian of Omaha has terminated $8.25 billion worth of sold municipal insurance (or half of his total, the balance of which he is unable to terminate, or technically, novate, due to timing limitations), a move which the WSJ says “indicates that one of the world’s savviest investors has doubts about the state of municipal finances. If so, the move could be a warning to investors who have purchased such debt. In canceling the contracts early, Mr. Buffett probably “doesn’t want this exposure anymore and is getting out while he can,” said Jeff Matthews, a hedge-fund manager who personally owns Berkshire shares.”

In what is worse news for the bullish muni community, the fact that Buffett closed the position at substantial losses indicates that the once deified investor is willing to swallow his pride, and despite his massive balance sheet, refuses to wait out the expiration of the insurance, implying he sees not only major shockwaves ahead, but turbulence that is imminent (if only M-Dub had waited until now). What is worst, is that Buffett’s bearish move comes at a very fragile time for the muni market: weeks after three consecutive bankruptcies shook California, and just as various other cities are contemplating strategies to impair bondholders (a la Greece and Belize) to avoid all out Chapter 9.

From the WSJ:

The Rest…HERE

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