Ice Age: back to 18th century?

Wednesday, February 22, 2012
By Paul Martin

Igor Siletsky
Feb 21, 2012

In the near future the mankind will face a new ice age not a global warming. That is the forecast which has been made by Habibullo Abdussamatov, the head of Space research laboratory at the Saint Petersburg-based Pulkovo Observatory, who is a well known global warming skeptic. According to him the coming cold will be caused by a decline in solar activity. Last time our planet experienced it in mid-17th century until the early 18th century. Nevertheless most of the climate experts including the colleagues of Abdusamatov do not support his theory.

How about frozen rivers Thames, Seine and Rhine and Russian vast lands covered with ice and a meter thick layer of snow? After the extremely cold weather of the current winter nobody likes this idea. But Abdusamatov is confident that people should get ready for a new cold era, which may become the fifth Little Ice Age in the last nine centuries. The situation in the mid 21st century will be similar to the Maunder Minimum which lasted from 1645 to 1715. Then the population of the northern countries drastically declined due to cold weather, hunger and migration.

Abdusamatov based his forecast on observations of solar activity. Scientists usually distinguish 200-year long and 11 year long periods in the activity of the Sun. Now, according to Abdusamatov, the amount of solar radiation hitting the Earth is constantly decreasing. It is the solar energy accumulated by the Sea which still keeps our planet warm. But after 2014, the astronomer says, mankind will feel the decrease in temperatures and by approximately 2055 (plus or minus 11 years) the amount of solar radiation hitting the Earth will reach its minimum.

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