Plunging German Investor Confidence Sends European Bank Risk To Record

Tuesday, August 23, 2011
By Paul Martin

by Tyler Durden

ust like yesterday we have the makings of a perfectly schizophrenic day. While stock futures are rapidly higher to begin with, as on Monday, on news of a slightly better than expected PMI out of China, we are very concerned whether this algo induced ramp can be sustained. The reason is that earlier today we got an absolutely abysmal German ZEW investor confidence number which dropped to -37.6 from -26, a doubling of the previous -15.1, and the lowest since December 2008. This epic collapse can only be compared with the stunner out of the Philly Fed last week. The biggest component of the ZEW, the current situation, imploded from 90.6 to 53.5, trouncing (to the downside) expectations of 85.0. Additionally, the eurozone economic sentiment dropped to -40 from -7.0. So what is the immediate impact? Well, as we said equity futures are completely ignoring that Europe’s growth dynamo is now confirmed to be in a double dip recession. However, not debt: as Bloomberg reports, “the cost of insuring European bank debt against default rose to a record as German investor confidence fell to the lowest 2 1/2 yrs+ on concern the region’s debt crisis will curb growth.” Specifically, iTraxx Fin soared to record 255 bps, +5 overnight, while SovX (the sovereign CDS index) was 5 bps wider to 302, just off the record 206 form July 18. We give stocks, which are once again soaring on renewed expectations of a QE3, a few hours before they realize that the news is actually i) very bad and ii) as has been said countless times, stocks have to drop far more, before LSAP resumes for the third time.

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