The Looming Food Crisis

Friday, January 7, 2011
By Paul Martin

Wealth Cycles
Jan 7, 2011

In the United States, it’s sometimes hard to imagine the disaster that rising food prices wreak. In Western countries, we are more likely battling obesity than starvation. In 2007, with food prices skyrocketing, The Economist declared this:

“In 1974-2005 food prices on world markets fell by three-quarters in real terms. Food today is so cheap that the West is battling gluttony even as it scrapes piles of half-eaten leftovers into the bin. That is why this year’s price rise has been so extraordinary. Since the spring, wheat prices have doubled and almost every crop under the sun—maize, milk, oilseeds, you name it—is at or near a peak in nominal terms. The Economist‘s food-price index is higher today than at any time since it was created in 1845.”

The price frenzy drove herds of speculative investors, enabled by new financial products developed by megabanks like Goldman Sachs and Barclays, to push prices higher and higher. The speculative frenzy had major collateral damage as riots exploded in 30 countries from Asia to South America, and more than a billion people (over 15% of the global population) were driven into “food insecure” status by the World Bank. In 2008, a horrifying 250 billion people were driven into hunger in a single year, the biggest increase in human history.

And then, like all speculative bubbles, the food bubble popped. By the end of 2008, prices on most food items had subsided to their pre-bubble levels. But the collateral damage had been done. While many went on to blame the megabanks, greedy speculators, and the other usual suspects—governments had been screwing up food policy for decades. The Economist went on:

With agflation, policy has reached a new level of self-parody. Take America’s supposedly verdant ethanol subsidies. It is not just that they are supporting a relatively dirty version of ethanol (far better to import Brazil’s sugar-based liquor); they are also offsetting older grain subsidies that lowered prices by encouraging overproduction. Intervention multiplies like lies. Now countries such as Russia and Venezuela have imposed price controls—an aid to consumers—to offset America’s aid to ethanol producers. Meanwhile, high grain prices are persuading people to clear forests to plant more maize.

The Rest…HERE

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